Reference · How it works
The reference price surface.
Where others show a number and hide the inputs, the Renaiss OS Index shows the number plus every trade behind it — named. Here is exactly how the index value and each reference price are built.
Backed by every trade
The number, plus every trade behind it — from three named, color-coded sources.
From trades to a reference price
For any single card we don’t hand you one opaque number. Over a rolling 7-day window of real, completed sales we compute three reference prices — Median, Average, and VWAP (volume-weighted) — and publish all three. You choose the one that fits how you value.
One card, three reference prices
rolling 7-day windowWe publish all three — refreshed daily over a rolling 7-day window of real, completed sales. On this card today they land between $128 and $131. We don’t pick one for you: take the measure that fits how you value, with every trade behind it shown.
A worked example
7 sales · same windowSay this card logged seven completed sales over the 7-day window, across two sources. Here is exactly how each measure turns those same sales into a price.
The 4th of 7 — the $300 outlier can’t move it.
Every sale counts equally, so the $300 sale drags it up.
÷ 7 = $960 ÷ 7
Site S’s own median ($130) tames its outlier, and its 5 sales outweigh eBay’s 2.
Same seven sales, three defensible numbers — $135, $160, $137. That spread is the point: we publish all three so you can take the one that fits how you value, with every trade shown.
How the index works
- Median reference price
- Each card is priced at the median of its completed PSA 10 sales over the trailing 7 days — the same window as the card’s own FMV, and a median (not the average) so one fat-finger or shill sale can’t move it.
- Sale-date FX
- Yen sales convert to USD at the exchange rate of their own sale date, not today’s, so currency swings never distort old history.
- Monthly rebalance with banding
- Membership is reviewed once a month: the 50 most-traded priceable cards form the basket, with hysteresis — a sitting member holds its seat until it falls well out, and a newcomer must rank clearly inside to enter. Seats change on conviction, not noise.
- Dollar-volume weights, capped at 10%
- A card’s weight follows its dollar volume (price × trades), but no single card may carry more than 10% of the index — the excess redistributes across the basket, so one mania card can’t become the whole index.
- The divisor
- Value is the basket divided by a divisor that re-solves whenever membership or weights change — the same mechanism the Dow has used since 1896 — so the line only ever moves because prices moved, never because the basket churned.
- Fixed base date
- Every index is anchored on the same post-bubble day — 1 July 2023, fixed at 10,000 — and always computed forward from there, so a given day’s value is identical no matter when, or over what window, it’s recomputed. The chart starts earlier than the base, in 2021: those pre-anchor years are fully computed and simply read above 10,000, the collecting bubble declining into the base. Anchoring after the bubble rather than at it is deliberate — a base pinned to a once-in-a-generation peak would leave every index reading as a permanent loss.
Every day’s full basket — each card, its reference price, weight and rank — is stored, so any index value on any date is reproducible from the immutable trade log. The whole series is a deterministic function of that log; recomputing it never changes a past day’s value.
Each game has its own index — Pokémon and One Piece — with a full constituent list and basket history.
Confidence
Every estimate carries a tier — from source agreement, recency, sample size, per-source trust, and identity completeness.
Not an offer
Verify anything
Every trade row carries its source URL. See a price that doesn’t look right? Open the original, then use the Report a data issue button on that card’s page — it lets you flag the exact field that’s off.